Subscribe on Substack
The library
Every Marginal Barrel post leaves behind something you can use: a model, an explorer or a dataset. Each is built from public data and shows its sources on every sheet. Model output, not a forecast.
LNG What-If Explorer Free
A US cargo lands in Asia for about $8.50 in the long run. Today's $23 gap between that cost and the Asian price is a rent on full US export capacity, and it closes as new plants arrive in 2027–31, faster if Hormuz reopens.
- Explorer: shift plant start dates, the Hormuz reopening month, Henry Hub, Brent and demand growth, and watch the Asian price path to 2036 change.
Indonesia gas balance Free
Indonesia promises its factories gas at $6.50 and delivers less than half of it. The model shows who gets the gas, who pays for the cheap part, and what a corrected policy would be worth.
- Gas balance 2025–2030, the price each buyer pays, the cost to the state on and off budget, and a 24-case scenario grid.
Vietnam gas–power balance Free
Vietnam's 65% offtake rule is too low for lenders and too high for the grid. The model prices the alternatives, including a capped capacity payment.
- Pick a policy, an LNG price and a coal price; read the twelve numbers that follow, from shortfall to tariff impact.
LNG netback calculator Free
Builds the cost of a US Gulf Coast cargo delivered into Japan step by step, from feedgas to regasification, and sets it against the Asian and European benchmarks.